For all the talk this past year about a possible U.S. military strike against Iran’s nuclear weapons program, the prospect of a preemptive attack before President Bush leaves office now seems very remote. Here are the findings of a new U.S. National Intelligence Estimate, declassified earlier today:

We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons. We judge with high confidence that the halt, and Tehran’s announcement of its decision to suspend its declared uranium enrichment program and sign an Additional Protocol to its Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Safeguards Agreement, was directed primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure resulting from exposure of Iran’s previously undeclared nuclear work.

Could it be true? Mahmoud Ahmadinejad—in addition to saying that he’d like Israel wiped off the map and that he looks forward to “a world without America”—has repeatedly boasted of his nation’s developing nuclear capabilities. Is it all bluster? Apparently so, if this report is to be taken at face value.

The fact is, America has a history of dismissing just about everything Iran says as bluster—magnanimously ignoring threats and assuming the best about Iran’s intentions.

Not only that, it has a dismal record of anticipating nuclear capability. Five days before the Soviets exploded their first atomic bomb in 1949, the cia predicted that the Russians wouldn’t be able to produce a bomb until the mid-1950s. The U.S. failed to predict India’s first nuclear test in 1998, and was blindsided last year by North Korea’s entrance into the nuclear club.

The agents of appeasement will ignore all of that. They will view this report as a victory for sanctions and diplomatic efforts. The pressure on the White House to refrain from dealing with Tehran more rigorously just doubled. Joe Biden need not concern himself with making good on his pledge to push for impeachment if President Bush takes military action against Iran—it’s not going to happen.

Meanwhile, an Iranian-led radical Islam will continue pushing at the West until a superior power finally does overwhelm it with force. That superior power, though, will come out of Europe.