Libya’s Unification Plan Will Fail—Here’s Why

Libya’s long-running division between rival governments may finally be nearing an end, as the United States and other outside powers push for unification. On the surface the effort looks promising, yet a closer look shows it is unlikely to succeed—and that the strategy these foreign players are pursuing will ultimately fail.

On August 30, Libya’s two governments, headquartered in Tripoli and Benghazi, signed an agreement to have national elections within two years. These are meant to unify former rivals and force them to work together, providing a new president and legislature. In the agreement, the United Nations will coordinate dialogue between the two sides to facilitate progress on reconciliation, security, the economy and other matters.

The two governments, backed by rival militias, have ruled Libya since 2020. The Tripoli government, under Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, is recognized by the international community and supported by more of the nation’s populace. The Benghazi government, led by strongman Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army, controls more land area. The two sides haven’t seen much serious fighting since 2020 but still skirmish.

International observers hope the August agreement will end Libya’s years of bloody division. Though the plan looks promising on the surface, it is setting Libya up for more infighting.

The Problem

To understand the problem in Libya’s unification plan, imagine America’s Republicans and Democrats are two separate nations at war with one another. Each side has its own government ruling its respective territory. Both sides want to do all they can to obliterate the other, but doing so could cause strong international backlash. These hypothetical countries decide to unify into one government but don’t solve any of their grievances. Neither side will stop trying to strip power from the other. The only difference is that now their conflict is legitimized by the international community.

This is Libya’s issue. The fighting between Dbeibeh and Haftar will merely shift from soldiers on a battlefield to politicians in parliament. This is unsustainable. Karim Mezran from the Atlantic Council said: “The deal’s many structural contradictions will surface soon enough and when they do, they risk bringing the whole edifice down in violence.”

The political arrangement now taking shape is unlikely to resolve Libya’s underlying power struggle. The two sides will simply carry their conflict into the institutions of a single state. That prospect doesn’t seem to trouble the Trump administration or several other foreign powers. In fact, a continued contest that favors Khalifa Haftar is the outcome many of them seem prepared to accept—and in some cases actively encourage.

The Expectation

Analysts expect Haftar, the opposition leader, to seize Libyan control from the currently recognized leader, Dbeibah. There are several reasons for this.

First, Haftar is upheld by a loyal army, while Dbeibah is upheld by militias with few ties to the Tripoli government outside of their paycheck. Should it become financially advantageous to switch sides and overthrow Dbeibah, many of his supporters would gladly do so.

More importantly, Haftar has been gaining international friends who appear increasingly likely to back him in his political duel with Dbeibeh. In the United States, Ballard Partners, a lobbying group with deep ties in the Trump administration, recently agreed to represent Haftar in public relations. Reports also indicate Haftar was essential in the recent release of U.S. missionary Kevin Rideout, who was taken captive in 2025 by the Islamic State. In a video after his release, Rideout personally thanked Haftar.

The Haftar family also recently helped secure the release of two Russian mercenaries captured in 2024, further gaining Moscow’s support. Haftar is reportedly working on plans with China to trade crude oil for increased military support. Beijing has even pushed past UN sanctions to get combat drones to Haftar.

Haftar has support among the Muslim world as well. The United Arab Emirates has long worked with Haftar to supply weapons to Sudan’s rebel paramilitary. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and even Turkey, one of the Dbeibah government’s main sponsors, are working to give Haftar financial and military support. Even Egypt has gone against its historic hostilities to Haftar and has begun working closely with his government.

“At this stage in the reunification talks, Haftar appears to have the support of just about everybody with the greatest influence over Libya.”
—Warfronts

International players see Haftar as a rival to the spread of radical Islam in Africa. They believe supporting him will aid their international strategies, and their plan seems to be working. Even if the plan to unify Libya’s governments fails and war renews, the aircraft Haftar has received and the airstrips he is building would give him an edge over Dbeibeh.

But world leaders are failing to anticipate what Bible prophecy reveals is about to happen: Their strategy will fail, because Libya will soon aid the spread of radical Islam.

The Future

For decades, the Trumpet and its predecessor, the Plain Truth, have accurately foretold future events based on Bible prophecy.

On Jan. 27, 2011, Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry recorded a tv program in which he told viewers to watch Libya. Though things were stable in the country at the time, Libya’s civil war started less than three weeks later.

The book of Daniel shows where Libya will soon align. Chapter 11 contains a prophecy for “the time of the end” (verse 40), which refers to modern times. This passage prophesies of a coming military alliance called “the king of the south,” which Mr. Flurry proves in his free booklet to be radical Islam led by Iran.

Verses 42-43 say Libya will fall with this king of the south. This means Libya will be closely allied with Iran in the near future! The emphasis on Egypt in these verses shows that Cairo will be the power responsible for putting Libya firmly in the Iranian camp.

These predictions may seem ludicrous now: Neither Egypt nor Libya looks likely to join radical Islam anytime soon. But these prophecies are sure—whether Libya turns to Iran under Dbeibeh, Haftar or another ruler.

Libya is about to stun the world. All evidence points to a Libya that will soon combat the spread of radical Islam. However, the Bible says differently. When these prophecies are fulfilled, they will help prove that God is real, that He is heavily involved in the affairs of men, and that we should do all we can to be right with Him as this world devolves into chaos.

For a deeper look into these prophecies, read our free booklet Libya and Ethiopia in Prophecy.