An Obstacle to German Control of Serbia Removed?

Former Serbian President Alexander Vučić suffered a crushing defeat in parliamentary elections yesterday. His right-wing Serbian Progressive Party won 105 seats in parliament compared to the roughly 140 won by the Student List candidates.

This likely means an end to Vučić’s 14-year grip on power, and it could mean Serbia will fall further into Germany’s orbit.

The Student List evolved from student-led anti-corruption protests, which broke out two years ago in opposition to Vučić’s rule.

Partly as a result of those protests, Vučić stepped down as president last month, nine months before the end of his term, and announced snap elections. His aim was to run for prime minister and maintain power that way—a bid he lost.

The Student List has a strong mandate and a majority in parliament to reverse Serbia’s course set by Vučić. Although this course was not hostile to the European Union and Germany, it didn’t embrace them either.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said after the elections, “We stand ready to support reforms on the rule of law, media freedom, the fight against corruption and strong democratic institutions, and to work together to advance Serbia’s future in the European Union.”

Marta Kos, EU commissioner for enlargement, stated, “The door to the EU is open, and we are ready to move forward together.”

In other words, this election opens the door for greater EU control over Serbia.

Foreign Interference?

In his speech conceding victory to the Student List yesterday, Vučić suggested there was foreign interference from other European nations (which he didn’t specify) and even the United States.

This isn’t the first time he’s made claims of foreign interference. He said the student-driven anti-corruption protests were sponsored by foreign actors, namely Croatia and Albania.

Vučić sent Croatia a note of protest this month, accusing it of planning election interference. Croatia denied the claim.

Whether Croatia worked to sabotage Vučić is unclear; however, Vučić has implied another nation works through Croatia.

Earlier this year, he stated that Croatia and other Balkan nations, such as Albania, were building their militaries on the orders of another nation and that Serbia must be prepared.

Which nation? Based on history, Germany is the most likely candidate. Few countries with real power stand to benefit as much from an encircled Serbia.

In December 2023, Vučić claimed an “important country” interfered in Serbian elections that year. He was referring to Germany, which had in the days before called a report of election irregularities in Serbia “unacceptable.”

Croatia has been a proxy for German territorial ambitions in the Balkans for the past century. Germany wants to dominate the region, and Vučić has, for the most part, been an obstacle to that.

Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry wrote, “First of all, the Germans want to control Europe. To do so, they must gain control of the Balkans, where their fiercest enemy is the Serbs.” We saw this play out throughout the 1990s during the Yugoslav Wars, which largely began because Germany recognized Croatian and Slovenian independence from Yugoslavia, which was portrayed as a Serbian empire.

We can see it even earlier, in Germany’s (and Austria-Hungary’s) invasion of Serbia in World War i, resulting in the deaths of 1.2 million Serbs, a quarter of the population. We can see it in the 1941 German invasion of Yugoslavia, which resulted in the deaths of about 400,000 Serbs.

National characteristics and generational conflicts don’t just disappear. The Balkans demonstrate that. Germany still wants to control Serbia.

An Obstacle?

Vučić’s opposition to Germany and the EU is most clearly seen in his stance against Kosovo independence.

Kosovo is a disputed territory. The Serbs claim it belongs to Serbia; the Albanians, and much of the West, claim it should be independent of Serbia since it is comprised primarily of ethnic Albanians.

War broke out in 1998 between the Kosovo Liberation Army and Serbia, culminating in nato’s bombing of Serbia in 1999. This led to Germany’s first major military operation since World War ii.

Although Kosovo independence is widely viewed as a broader Western movement, the real force behind it has been Germany. In Germany’s Conquest of the Balkans, Mr. Gerald Flurry writes that the Kosovo Liberation Army, which fought for independence through the late 1990s, was “essentially raised up and directly supported by Germany—the powerhouse of Europe.”

It has been a source of dispute between Serbia and the German-led EU since.

Several times Vučić has spoken against Kosovo independence, which he called an attempt “to seize 14 percent” of Serbia. He stated in a 2022 interview:

[N]o matter how many of them recognize Kosovo, and whatever they do, unlike them, Serbia will stick to the public international law, to the [United Nations] Charter, respecting the territorial integrity of internationally recognized countries, and that is Serbia, not Kosovo, that is for sure. Which means that regardless of all pressures and blackmail, no matter what anyone thinks, Serbia will preserve its territorial integrity.

His speech to the UN in September made a similar point.

Few have supported Kosovo independence to the extent Germany has. It even hosted its unofficial prime minister, allowing Germany to be used as an operations base from 1991 to 1998. Germany today is funding the Kosovo government.

The Kosovo independence movement was and is a result of Germany actively trying to claim 14 percent of Serbia’s territory. An unwillingness to compromise on Kosovo shows an unwillingness to bow to German will in the region.

That can be seen even in Vučić’s rhetoric with the EU, which, ultimately, is led by Germany. When EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos decried Serbia for not behaving “in a European manner” over a judicial overhaul the EU disagreed with, Vučić said he refused to be ordered by Brussels.

His opposition to Germany can be seen in other instances.

In 2022, when talking about Serbian defense investments, which he significantly increased in recent years partly as a response to Croatia and Albania’s rearming, he pointed out the double standard in noting that while Germany invests to become Europe’s strongest army, “they shout at us when we invest a few million in armament acquisition.”

Vučić’s Serbia has been a black sheep of Europe. Last year, he told the Jerusalem Post, “I am the only one in Europe today dealing in military ammunition with Israel.” He added that that’s why he is “criticized” by other European leaders.

Shared history with Israel is the reason for Vučić’s efforts to tighten their ties. Both have a long history of persecution at the hands of Germany.

Vučić’s Beliefs

Vojislav Šešelj, viewed by many as Vučić’s political mentor, or “political father,” was fiercely and vocally opposed to Germany (and the Vatican). He compared the European Union to a German empire and likened its support of Croatia in the Yugoslav Wars to its actions under Nazi Germany.

Vučić volunteered to join the Bosnian Serb forces for 40 days around 1992–1993, with the army under the command of Ratko Mladić. Mladić, according to Misha Glenny, viewed the Yugoslav Wars as part of Germany’s efforts to build the Fourth Reich and fought to resist it. Vučić likely shares Mladić’s belief.

His early career in Serbian politics was spent in the ultranationalist Serbian Radical Party, which wanted a “Greater Serbia”—the uniting of all Serbs throughout the Balkans into one nation.

It was only around 2008 when Vučić officially became more moderate and backed the idea of EU accession. That makes sense—any politician openly against EU accession would draw the EU’s ire and have a harder time in elections. But Vučić’s statements and actions suggest he remained skeptical of the EU.

In 2020, he said, “Today, there is one great power in the European Union, and that is Germany.” He added, “No matter what anyone says, balance within the EU does not exist anymore. Everyone depends on Germany.”

He has also stated that everything in Europe will change once Germany becomes the strongest military power on the Continent. This implies he doesn’t think Germany has completely reformed from its fascist past.

Serbian media, which during his tenure was largely under Vučić’s control, was known for promoting anti-German sentiment.

It would be advantageous for Germany if such a leader were replaced. The newly elected Student List members of parliament, who will now likely also elect a prime minister, will likely cave in to whatever Germany asks, directly or indirectly through tools such as the EU. One Student List candidate stated he doesn’t care about Kosovo.

Why This Matters

This is not meant to defend Vučić, who has been dictatorial in media censorship and potential corruption. It’s meant to shed light on Germany’s war against Serbia.

It’s important to watch German efforts in the Balkans because they provide a glimpse into Germany’s imperialistic ambitions for the world. Serbia, once the biggest threat to German interests in the region, is much easier for Germany to control without Vučić at the helm.

Why does Germany want the Balkans?

The Balkans, with their strategic location, are vital if Germany is to become the unquestioned leader of a European superpower.

Many Serbian leaders believe the driving force behind the independence of Croatia and Slovenia was the Roman Catholic Church! This is only a small part of a rising Holy Roman Empire. Germany and the Vatican were willing to offend the whole world to recognize two little Roman Catholic republics!
—Gerald Flurry, Germany’s Conquest of the Balkans

Germany has conquered much of Yugoslavia on its path to revive the Holy Roman Empire. Yugoslavia no longer exists. Croatia and Slovenia were absorbed into the German-led European Union. Other Balkan nations are EU candidates—including Serbia, which seems set to continue its path to membership at greater speed.

Expect Germany to continue to force Serbia under its control, whether by working closely with its new leaders or other means.