Germany Is Gunning for Control of Bulgaria

Seemingly pro-Russia candidate Rumen Radev was elected as Bulgaria’s prime minister on April 19. He secured nearly 45 percent of the vote, providing him with a majority in parliament and bringing stability to a nation that has had a dozen governments in the last 10 years.

Will this member of the European Union shift toward Russia under its new leader?

Radev took office on May 8, and one of his first acts was to cut military supplies to Ukraine. His government claimed the move was designed to establish a “just peace” between Russia and Ukraine.

This has evoked fears across the EU that Bulgaria could be a new version of Viktor Orbán’s Hungary, an EU member that blocks efforts to support Ukraine and appears to be pro-Putin.

Bulgaria is not a small military exporter to Ukraine. According to German news outlet Die Welt, Bulgaria supplied roughly a third of Ukraine’s ammunition needs and “helped Ukraine to survive the first phase of the war.” From 2022 to 2025, it exported over $7.4 billion worth of arms, with much of that going to Ukraine.

Fears that Bulgaria is becoming a new Hungary, though, are unjustified.

Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov noted that Bulgaria is still open to selling weaponry to Ukraine. The difference is that there won’t be any more gifting of Soviet-era supplies. Bulgaria and Ukraine still plan to develop drones and operate factories together, which further shows that Bulgaria is not the new Hungary.

Bulgaria’s population is split between pro-Russia and pro-EU, and Radev likely made his decision to appease his pro-Russia constituents.

Although there is Russian influence in Bulgaria, it seems Germany is gaining sway.

Military Inroads

Germany’s largest defense company, Rheinmetall, announced plans in December to spend over $1.2 billion on the construction of an artillery ammunition factory in Sopot, Bulgaria, in cooperation with Bulgarian defense company vmz. It will create 1,000 jobs and is due to open in 2027. Rheinmetall has a controlling share of 51 percent; vmz will own 49 percent.

Bulgaria’s entire nominal gross domestic product for 2025 was $130 billion. Rheinmetall’s investment is no small matter.

Once operational, the factory will produce 100,000 155-millimeter ammunition shells each year, plus up to 150,000 propellant charges for shells. To put that into perspective, Europe’s largest munitions factory under construction in Unterlüß by Rheinmetall is expected to produce 350,000 shells per year.

A Rheinmetall press release called the Sopot factory “one of the most significant investments in ammunition production in recent years.” The Unterlüß factory is receiving merely half the investment of Sopot’s factory.

“With the new production facility, we are further expanding our leading role as a manufacturer of artillery ammunition to continue supporting the defense capabilities of the European Union and nato,” Rheinmetall ceo Armin Papperger said of the deal.

This is about Germany’s domination and militarization of Europe.

Dimitar Bechev, senior fellow at think tank Carnegie Europe, expects “Bulgarian exports to Germany will go through the roof.” Bulgaria is being turned into a furnace for the German war machine.

Showing where his priorities lie, Radev’s first foreign visit as prime minister was to Germany on May 19. He spoke with Chancellor Friedrich Merz about increasing Bulgaria’s role in military production for Europe.

Political Inroads

Germany has been getting its grip on Bulgaria for decades through diplomatic means. Bulgaria has been a member of the German-dominated EU since 2007. On January 1, it officially gave up the lev in favor of the euro, a move that hitches its economy to the monetary policy of the EU, which Germany, as the bloc’s largest economy, has large sway over.

Germany is already Bulgaria’s largest trade partner, with $14 billion traded between them last year.

Bulgaria is also relying on the EU safe program to build its military. The program will provide Bulgaria with over $3.4 billion in loans to bolster its drone and naval capabilities.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul visited Bulgaria in October, and he called Romania and Bulgaria “partners that are crucial for Europe’s security and stability. Southeastern Europe is a strategic centrepiece of our continent.” Purely diplomatic talk? Possibly, but given Germany’s history in the Balkans, that comment shouldn’t be completely dismissed.

Why does Germany care about Bulgaria?

Bulgaria is strategically located, as the foreign minister noted, placed conveniently on the Black Sea, a potentially valuable position to block Russian aggression. In the event of a war in the Middle East, it could serve as a launchpad similar to Cyprus.

It also provides further opportunity to cement control over the Balkans. Stratfor wrote on March 6, 2002:

Germany is seeking to reassert itself at the center of Europe, and the Balkans play a big part in that strategy. It is an area where Germany can expand its military reach without frightening either itself or its neighbors. Berlin also would like to build on its ties with Slovenia, Croatia, Albania, Bosnia and Bulgaria to pull both Southern and Eastern Europe under its wing as the EU expands.

“The Germans want to control Europe,” Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry writes in Germany’s Conquest of the Balkans. “To do so, they must gain control of the Balkans, where their fiercest enemy is the Serbs. For the most part, the Serbs have been silenced.”

Bulgaria is in the eastern Balkans, and it is Serbia’s second-largest neighbor to the east, which means it could be used as a tool to keep Serbia in check and expand German influence over the turbulent region.

Whether Bulgaria will be in Germany’s orbit for long is uncertain; however, what is certain, and illustrated by Germany’s inroads, is that Germany intends to rule and militarize Europe as it prepares for war.

To understand why Germany wants to control the Balkans, and more generally Europe, read Germany’s Conquest of the Balkans.