Is Another Balkan War Brewing?

Tensions are rising in the region of Europe that kicked off World War i. On March 12, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić told state media that his government was preparing for an attack from its historic enemies: Albania, Croatia and Kosovo. “They are waiting for a favorable moment,” and “we are preparing for their attack,” Vučić said.

Those three nations signed a military cooperation agreement on March 18, 2025, which Belgrade viewed as the foundation for an anti-Serbian bloc and a violation of the 1996 Subregional Arms Control Agreement.

Vučić has also accused Croatia of stirring social unrest in his country over recent years, specifically pointing to the 2024 student-led anti-corruption protests in Belgrade as an attempt to undermine his government. On March 4, Serbia’s government marked Croatia as an unsafe destination, to be traveled to only out of “extreme necessity.”

Those tensions, which have been simmering for years, are pushing Serbia to arm quickly. In January, Vučić called for Serbia’s military capacity to double within 18 months, even though it had already grown significantly. Serbia’s military budget increased from $1.8 billion in 2023 to $2.3 billion in 2024 to approximately $2.5 billion last year. Serbia has been the largest arms importer in the western Balkans for years, spending roughly six times more than Albania (the runner-up) on imports between 2020 and 2024, according to recently released data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

On March 12, Vučić admitted that Serbia bought a “significant” number of Chinese air-to-ground missiles with a 250-mile range after photos of Serbian jets equipped with the weapons were leaked. It is the first European country to do so. He also announced plans to buy more.

Croatia called the missile purchase a threat to the region’s stability and a sign of a regional arms race. Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković said he briefed nato regarding the purchase.

There certainly is an arms race in the region. Croatia, partly due to nato commitments, plans to spend 3 percent of its gross domestic product on defense by 2030. That includes purchasing 44 German-made Leopard 2A8 tanks (using EU loans) to replace their old Russian tanks, which are being sent to Ukraine. “Croatia is gradually abandoning Eastern military technology and moving to Western technology, and the partnership with Germany, through this and other examples, is one of the ways we continuously strengthen cooperation in the field of defense,” a government press release stated.

It’s worth noting the difference between Croatia’s and Serbia’s armament strategies: Croatia is turning to Germany; Serbia is buying arms from China.

On January 1, Croatia marked a milestone when it began protecting its own airspace using modern French-made Rafale fighter jets. Croatia also plans to buy two new warships, which will cost between $750 million and $1.8 billion. To put that into perspective, last year Croatia’s gdp was around $100 billion.

It has also been working to develop its anti-drone warfare and artificial intelligence capabilities, signing a $145 million agreement in December. Furthermore, both Serbia and Croatia have reintroduced conscription after 15- and 18-year pauses, respectively.

Why does Serbia feel threatened by its neighbors’ military buildup and cooperation? After all, Croatia is a member of both the European Union and nato. Albania is also a member of nato, an organization that Serbia is supposedly allied with.

One reason is the rise of anti-Serbian sentiment, particularly in Croatia. Last July, far-right Croatian singer Marko Perković, who is banned from performing in several countries due to his far-right views, performed in Zagreb for a crowd of 500,000 (roughly 13 percent of the country’s population). During the concert, as the mostly Croatian crowd cheered, he sang one of his most popular songs, which included a phrase used by the Ustaše: “for the homeland—ready.” The Ustaše was the puppet government set up during World War ii and responsible for the murder of 350,000 Serbians and Jews. Several audience members, mostly young, made Ustaše salutes (comparable to the Nazi’s “heil Hitler”). This was the largest concert in Croatia’s history—and it was a pro-Nazi performance. How could such a country be an EU member in good standing? Why is a supposedly repentant Germany allowing this country to buy its tanks?

A giant cross was featured in Perković’s concert, which highlights the nation’s strong Catholic ties, an influence that has a dark history of fueling genocide and tying it to Germany.

That far-right sentiment exists in Croatia’s government too. The ruling Croatian Democratic Union party was founded by Franjo Tudjman, an anti-Semite who refused to apologize for Croatia’s actions in World War ii. As Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry wrote, Tudjman “publicly and repeatedly said his country was right in supporting Hitler! He was very adamant and unrepentant.”

Another reason Serbians fear their neighbors is that they realize the real power threatening them is not Croatia or Albania. “Those from the region have done this armament on someone’s orders, and it has happened before that they turn from defensive to offensive. That’s why we must be prepared,” President Vučić said. Whose orders is he talking about? A far-right-leaning Croatia has a history of doing Germany’s bidding in the area.

“The Germans want to control Europe, Mr. Flurry writes. “To do so, they must gain control of the Balkans, where their fiercest enemy is the Serbs. For the most part, the Serbs have been silenced” (Germany’s Conquest of the Balkans).

Germany wants to be the unquestioned leader of a European superpower. The Balkans, with their strategic location, are vital if Germany is to make that happen. It is the only nation that stands to gain from a conflict in the region. What’s more, Germany has a history of stirring up wars to pacify Serbia so it can fulfill its imperialistic ambitions. The Yugoslav Wars in the 1990s proved that. Many blame Germany for instigating the wars by recognizing Croatia and Slovenia as independent states against the West’s will.

Many Serbian leaders believe the driving force behind the independence of Croatia and Slovenia was the Roman Catholic Church! This is only a small part of a rising Holy Roman Empire. Germany and the Vatican were willing to offend the whole world to recognize two little Roman Catholic republics!
—Gerald Flurry, Germany’s Conquest of the Balkans

Germany has already conquered much of the Balkans on its path to revive the ancient Holy Roman Empire. That’s evident because Yugoslavia no longer exists, Croatia and Slovenia were absorbed into the German-led European Union, and other Balkan nations are EU candidates (including Serbia). They won’t let an increasingly powerful Serbia threaten their Balkan empire. Expect Germany to force Serbia under its control, and watch Germany’s actions in the region closely because they provide a glimpse into Germany’s plans for the world.

For a more thorough understanding of why Germany wants to control the Balkans and what it portends, read Germany’s Conquest of the Balkans.