The Dragon and the Elephant—a Blossoming Friendship
Not long ago, China and India were at each other’s throats. Yet today, border conflicts over Kashmir, allegations of Chinese-fueled opposition in Burma, interference in Pakistan, and competition over ever-dwindling world oil supplies seem increasingly forgotten. The big question is, why?
In March, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, during his yearly press conference, said that “Sino-Indian strategic relations have reached a ‘historical stage’” and foresaw their “fraternal friendship” becoming “vibrant and strong” and ushering in “a true Asian century” (Press Trust of India, March 14). Judging by the increased cooperation in both spheres of military and trade, China and India’s relationship certainly seems to be dramatically improving.
This new degree of friendship bothers United States foreign strategy directors (Salon.com, April 19). To many, U.S. policy with regards to China has been interpreted as being one of containment. Toward this goal, the U.S. has sought and actively developed strategic alliances with nations such as Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Australia and, most recently, India—nations it hopes to weld together in order to counterbalance China’s growing power.
However, India’s recent actions indicate that it will not be totally influenced by the U.S.—and that it may actually be moving in a direction opposite to U.S. goals.
For example, on May 29, China and India took a “quantum leap forward in their military ties” (Indo-Asian News Service, June 3). According to Indian Lt. Gen. Satish Nambiar, a former deputy chief of the Indian Army, the newly ratified Chinese-Indian defense pact “is a clear pointer that while New Delhi wants better ties with the U.S., this does not mean a gang-up against China as we can handle our own security” (ibid.).
Under the defense agreement, Chinese and Indian military personal will execute “joint exercises by their armed forces and training programs in the field of search and rescue, anti-piracy and counter-terrorism measures.” The pact also focuses on annual high-level officer and defense minister exchanges and closer studies of each other’s defense and national development policies. It represents a stark contrast to previous Chinese and Indian military doctrines, which were geared to opposing and limiting each other’s influence (International Herald Tribune,Jan. 19, 2002).
This change of stance has been somewhat sudden. Even just a few years ago, such close military observance and interaction would not have been feasible. As one officer said in summarizing the importance of the joint military exercises, “Hitherto, the Indian and Chinese armies have been inviting [other] observers for their exercises. The fact that they have decided to provide each other a closer look at their establishments shows the degree of comfort they have reached” (Indo-Asian News Service, op. cit.).
But the increasing degree of comfort and cooperation between China and India goes beyond the military. They also are beginning to cooperate economically.
According to Robert Morse, ceo of Citigroup Asia Pacific, people should not just focus on the competition between the “dragon” and the “elephant,” but should see the “potential in cooperation between the two countries” (Xinhua News Agency, April 24).
If 2005 was any indication, China and India are quickly expanding their economic cooperation. In fact, last year trade between the two countries surged 38 percent.
Strangely enough, even the one area of trade over which many people thought China and India would be forever at odds—that of oil supply—has become an area of cooperation.
As the global scramble to secure oil supplies has heated up, both China and India have been forced to seek oil assets in countries considered politically unattractive to larger, richer Western oil companies. Consequently, over the past few years, China and India have paid a high price as their state-owned oil companies competed over the same resources, bidding up each other’s costs. “Therefore it does make sense … to have circumstances in which India and China march shoulder to shoulder,” said Mani Shankar Aiyar, India’s minister for petroleum and natural gas, at the signing of the landmark oil and gas agreement between the two nations (Agence France Presse, January 12).
The agreement calls for China and India “to cooperate where possible in bidding for all third-country oil assets.” Aiyar explained, “We have agreed to cooperate down the entire hydrocarbon value chain; the scope of what we are going to do begins with R&D and ends with petroleum refining” (International Herald Tribune, January 21).
If China and India do continue to cooperate instead of bidding against each other on their oil purchases, the savings could be in the billions of dollars—money that could be spent acquiring other oil supplies. The first of such deals took place last December, when China and India’s largest state-owned oil companies collaborated on a successful joint bid for PetroCanada’s Syrian oil and natural gas assets. That deal was worth $578 million. China and India are also jointly operating oil fields in Sudan.
It seems that in the face of competition with the world’s other larger oil consumers, including the United States and Europe, China and India have realized the advantages of cooperating. Alone, neither possesses a military capable of capturing and securing oil supplies in the event of united European or American opposition. Together, however, they represent a more formidable military and economic power.
And the force which will allow the Dragon and the Elephant to remain in cooperation instead of competition is the Russian Bear.
Russia, the former Cold War superpower, seems to have been given new life as higher oil prices have injected economic energy into this once decaying empire. A resurgent Russia is again seeking and gaining global influence and political power, this time on the back of its massive untapped energy reserves.
Of all nations, Russia is uniquely able and willing to provide the secure source of energy needed to power China’s and India’s rapid industrial and economic growth. Russia has the oil, natural gas, uranium and nuclear technology needed to provide power for the one-third of the Earth’s inhabitants that live in China and India.
But why would Russia commit to providing energy to China and India? Because to do so would thwart American influence in Asia. The more energy Russia supplies its Asian neighbors, the less reliant they become on ocean-bound imported oil and on American-protected ocean shipping lanes, and the less vulnerable they become to American interruptions in the event of conflicts.
Meanwhile, of course, China and India become more reliant upon Russian energy supplies. That is exactly what Russia wants as it seeks to reestablish itself as a dominant global power.
The recent warming of relations between China and India, along with Russia’s reemergence as a world power, demonstrates the deepening of a biblically prophesied alliance. This alliance will grow in power and influence in the years ahead, in part through economic, energy, and military cooperation.
These trends reflect the tidal shift occurring in geopolitics today away from its current U.S.-dominated, one-power structure into a more dangerous, multipolar configuration—one termed in the Bible “the times of the Gentiles.”
Bible prophecy guarantees that these nations will play a profound role in end-time events—including the formation of a 200 million-man army. For more information, please read our booklet Russia and China in Prophecy.