SCO Focus Shifts, Reveals Rising Asian Superpower
June 15 and 16 marked the sixth annual summit of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (sco). This meeting significantly revealed the growing influence of China and its allies.
The sco began five years ago as a forum for China, Russia and Central Asian countries to resolve border issues after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Its focus eventually shifted to counterterrorism, security and economic cooperation. But today, according to Stratfor, the summit has become a way to gauge the strength of the Russia-China relationship and to learn their respective international concerns. At the July 2005 summit, “both Russia and China began turning the summit into a forum to counter rising U.S. influence in Central Asia resulting from September 11 and the U.S. operations in Afghanistan” (June 14). At that summit, the sco discussed deadlines for eliminating the U.S. military presence in Central Asia.
Despite few accomplishments, a paltry $30 million budget and a staff of a few dozen, the sco is becoming more significant. A sudden increase of interest surrounded this year’s meeting, with other nations offering support, including Iran, Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, even asean. Though the list of countries that applied for sco membership or observer status remains undisclosed, Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister Li Hui said, “A lot of countries in Asia and other continents have applied, demonstrating the sco is broadening its influence.” Already, the organization’s members and observers represent half of the world’s population.
One reason for the sco’s popularity, some commentators are pointing out, is that China’s growth is no longer perceived as a threat to the developing world, but as an opportunity. In a sense, China has given a lifeline to otherwise outcast nations, offering legitimacy and economic development. Take, for example, Iran’s presence at the summit (which aroused concern in Washington), and Chinese relations with leaders of Uzbekistan, Sudan, Zimbabwe and other despot nations. Note Chinese presence in Latin America and Africa. The West stifles many of these nations politically and diplomatically. China, however—in its quest to create a chain of diplomatic ties that will counter U.S. influence, and to fuel its growing empire with the necessary resources—embraces them.
Another example of China’s growing status as profitable partner lies in sco observer nation India, which has historically been a major competitor with China for energy. India’s energy minister attended the latest sco summit and opted to join China in a $2 billion bid for the development of oil fields in sco member Kazakhstan. Also asean, which originated in 1967 in defense mainly against Chinese Communist incursions, sent its deputy secretary general to the summit.
At the 2006 summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin called for “an sco energy club.” This group includes some of the biggest energy producers and consumers in the world—an attractive alliance indeed.
Members also moved to develop the organization into a powerful economic force. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose country enjoys observer status, even invited the sco to convene in Iran “to explore more effective ways of cooperating in the exploration, exploitation, transport and conversion of energy.”
Currently, a strong U.S. presence in Central Asia threatens China’s energy supply routes. Pakistan and Afghanistan have offered China and the sco their cooperation in creating a link between East Asia and the Middle East. Take a look at a map: These are the two nations that separate China and Iran. As the Australian reported, “Through the sco, China has developed connections that will ensure at least some of the massive oil and gas reserves in Central Asia flow east and not west” (June 13).
A critical reason for China’s popularity (and, as a result, the sco’s popularity) is its tolerance for bad behavior among its partners.
The sco, according to its charter, seeks “a new international political and economic order,” one “featuring democracy, justice and rationality.” One would tend to think that such an ambition would exclude the participation of states widely considered undemocratic, unjust and irrational. Not so. During the summit, Putin said, “The sco is not a closed and exclusive club whose lines of demarcation have been clearly drawn.” This was especially emphasized by the presence of Iran’s president, who commented after meeting with Putin and Chinese President Hu Jintao that the threesome’s “views and positions on many issues are close, or even identical.”
U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld stated poignantly, “It strikes me as strange that one would want to bring into an organization that says it’s against terrorism … one of the leading terrorist nations in the world” (Telegraph, London, June 15).
By inviting Iran to the sco summit, Beijing and Moscow are seeking to increase the organization’s international status, even at the expense of clearly stated foundational principles. In response to critics, sco Secretary General Zhang Deguang told journalists, “We cannot abide other countries calling our observer nations sponsors of terror. We would not have invited them if we believed they sponsored terror.”
China and Russia’s cooperation with Iran is clearly exacerbating the nuclear proliferation problem, particularly given these two nations’ status as United Nations Security Council members.
But the problem goes beyond Iran: Mostsco members and its partners have dictatorial regimes at their helms. A nonchalant approach to Iranian nuclear weaponry would almost surely make the proliferation problem far worse. As a June 16International Herald Tribune article commented, “if the Shanghai Cooperation Organization emerges as a group whose highest principle is the right of states to do whatever they wish within their borders without outside interference, China and Russia could both eventually have to face the prospects of other Central Asian countries acquiring nuclear technology.”
The Russia-China axis offers the developing world, of which all “rogue nations” are considered to be a part, economic benefits and the protection, power and credence to do as they please. Putin said after a meeting with Ahmadinejad that nations have a right to develop nuclear weapons. Ahmadinejad stated openly at the summit that his nation hopes the sco will “block threats and unlawful, strong-arm interference from various countries.”
The sco’s development demonstrates the deepening of the biblically prophesied partnership between Russia and China, both of which we can expect will grow in wealth and influence in the years ahead, in part through such cooperation. The sco is also facilitating the rise of rogue states and providing them a platform to exercise more boldness. Both of these trends reflect the tidal shift occurring in geopolitics today away from its current U.S.-dominated, one-power structure into a more dangerous, multipolar configuration—one termed in the Bible “the times of the Gentiles.”