“Gas Prices Soar at the Pump” is a headline increasingly common across America. Rising gasoline prices are a reality many Americans must now face—and it may not improve anytime soon.

According to Alan Gains, chief executive officer of Houston-based Dune Energy and a former top energy analyst, Americans could easily see $5 a gallon gas this summer. Gains correctly predicted the rise in gas from under $3 to $4 several months before it occurred.

Mr. Gains chronicles a list of factors that he says could produce $90 to $100 oil per barrel—up from the current $70 price. These factors include “shortage of gasoline inventories, a really hot summer, supply disruptions arising from troubles in Iran and Nigeria, or another serious hurricane in the Gulf, 13 percent of whose production is [still] offline” (New York Sun,April 24). But perhaps the most significant factor behind the general rise in oil prices is increasing demand from Asia—primarily China.

In February, China’s net oil imports soared 28 percent. In March, Chinese crude oil imports were up a comparatively smaller, but still huge 10.9 percent year over year. China has become the world’s second-largest oil consumer, after the United States. Its increasing appetite for oil has ignited a global resource race with America to secure sources of supply, and this is causing tension between the two.

As Asian demand for oil has increased, Middle Eastern reliance on American oil consumption has fallen. Consequently, America’s influence within the Middle East and Saudi Arabia in particular has been eroding. If these trends continue, America will reach the point where it needs Middle Eastern oil more than the Middle East needs U.S. money.

Perhaps nothing illustrates the growing tensions over oil between China and America better than the less-than-open-armed reception Chinese President Hu Jintao was given on his April visit to the United States—in comparison to his royal treatment on visits to Saudi Arabia and Nigeria the same month.

President Hu’s recent visits to Saudi Arabia—China’s second-largest supplier of crude oil—and Nigeria—the top African oil producer—underscored China’s increasing demand for oil and its growing relationships with oil-exporting countries. Also, Saudi Arabia’s tense attitude toward the United States was clear.

In a speech before Saudi Arabia’s legislature on April 23, President Hu—only the second foreign leader ever invited to address the Saudi assembly—pledged to help stabilize the Middle East, saying that “China is ready to work with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries to support peace and growth in the Middle East and build a harmonious world that enjoys constant peace and prosperity.”

According to Times Online, “Mr. Hu’s remarks were seen as a direct challenge to the United States, which for the past half century has dominated security and diplomacy in the region” (April 24).

China and Saudi Arabia have found the basis for a friendship in their shared disdain for Western meddling in their internal affairs. China resents American criticism over its human rights record; for Saudi Arabia, both human rights and Islamism issues are cooling its relationship with the U.S.

In his speech to the Saudi legislature, Hu received a standing ovation for saying the West should not “hurl false accusations against the internal affairs of other countries, let alone blame a specific civilization, people or religion for causing problems and conflicts in the world.” A standing ovation by the Saudi assembly for anti-U.S. remarks doesn’t bode well for America’s relationship with the world’s largest oil-producing nation.

After Hu’s trip to Saudi Arabia, he was welcomed to Nigeria by President Olusegun Obasanjo with pomp and ceremony, signifying the growing Sino-Nigerian strategic partnership. An example of this developing relationship is the Chinese state-controlled oil company cnooc’s $2.3 billion investment to develop a Nigerian off-shore oil field, announced in January. cnooc is the same company the U.S. government blocked from purchasing U.S.-based oil company Unocal last year.

In stark contrast to the Chinese president’s warm reception in both Saudi Arabia and Nigeria, Hu’s latest visit to America was characterized by a snub and a series of blunders. The Seattle Times reported that the “protocol-obsessed Chinese leader suffered a day full of indignities—some intentional, others just careless” (April 24).

Upon arrival in America, Hu Jintao received a 21-gun-salute, but not an official state reception. He did not even receive an official state dinner, but was granted only a “working lunch” with the president. As reported by Business Week, “Hu hosted a state banquet last year when Bush visited Beijing. To Chinese leaders, the U.S. lack of reciprocity is more than a matter of broken protocol …. It is seen as a slap in Hu’s face” (April 13).

America’s choice of reception honors for the Chinese president is even more surprising given the fact that China is the second-largest foreign holder of U.S. debt and has been one America’s largest financers in recent years.

Another potential offense occurred when the official announcer said the band would play the “national anthem of the Republic of China”—the official name of Taiwan. Then there was the protestor at the press conference who was allowed to shout accusations at Hu for three minutes before being escorted away.

Why the huge contrast between how China was received by the U.S. and the warm receptions Saudi Arabia and Nigeria gave? The answer is largely that China’s rapid growth has put it in direct competition with the U.S. for many resources—including oil. Additionally, many Middle East oil producers are countries dominated by Muslim populations that increasingly see the U.S. as the enemy, and are thus seeking allies elsewhere. China, which desperately needs oil and conveniently is a UN Security Council veto holder, makes an ideal partner for these nations.

As these types of relationships develop, America will probably continue to lose influence in the oil-rich Middle East and resource-rich Africa.

What does this mean for Americans? It means that as China continues to secure oil supplies, oil prices are probably going to keep going up.

Most of us know that gasoline is derived from crude oil, so we can probably expect higher gasoline costs. But less than half of each barrel of oil imported into the U.S. is used for this purpose. In the form of petrochemicals, oil is a key ingredient in thousands of other products. Everything from radios and shampoo bottles to soft contact lenses and garbage bags are made with oil, in the form of plastics.

The modern world in its work and leisure relies very heavily on oil. As the saying goes, oil makes the “world go round.” But as the price of oil goes up, the grease that keeps the world spinning starts to cost more—and so will all the things that are manufactured from it.

In other words, higher oil prices could cause inflation and rising consumer prices—not a good thing for the U.S. economy, which has become so dependent on consumer spending.

For more information on the probability of coming resource wars and the implications for America, see our article “The Battleground” and the March 2006 issue of the Trumpet.