In March, the people of land-locked Kyrgyzstan revolted and overthrew their corrupt government. Labeled the “Tulip Revolution,” the Kyrgyzstan revolt, if successful, could prove to be the first of a number of democratic revolutions in Central Asia.
While America and the European Union may be smiling, Russia is approaching the matter more pessimistically.
With the election of pro-European governments in both Ukraine and Georgia, Russia has seen the EU’s sphere of influence expand to within a few hundred miles of its capital, Moscow. Both EU and American influence has increased in this area. U.S. military bases have been established throughout Eastern Europe and Central Asia—including Kyrgyzstan. The way Moscow sees it, Russia is being surrounded by both of its traditional enemies!
Surely Russian President Vladimir Putin will wrestle against the establishment of any pro-Western democracy in Central Asia. Putin’s conduct during the Ukrainian elections proves that he will not idly sit by and casually observe the establishment of any nearby pro-Western democracy. Watch for Moscow’s diplomatic rhetoric with these nations to intensify in the coming months.
Russia is under intense pressure. The treaties and economic ties Moscow currently has with the EU are nothing more than short-term agreements of convenience. Remember, despite treaties signed to guard against it, Russia has been involved in two world wars against a German-led axis.
You can be sure that Russia is concerned about the establishment of pro-Western democracies in Central Asia. Unless any new governments serve his agenda, Putin will do his best to thwart these attempts.
If further democratic revolutions occur in Central Asia and pro-Western governments are established, Moscow will seek alternate alliances and strengthen present ones (e.g. with China and the rest of Asia). This trend is already occurring, but it will grow stronger.