What Will Happen to Iran When Khamenei Dies?

On Tuesday, Iran’s Assembly of Experts chose ultraconservative hardliner Ayatollah Mohammed Yazdi as its chairman. He defeated Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who is considered more moderate by the West.

The Assembly of Experts selects the nation’s supreme leader, who is the real leader of the country. This council is made up of more than 80 high-ranking religious leaders who represent each of Iran’s provinces. Currently the council is filled with hardline conservatives.

Reports are surfacing of 75-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s declining health. Although impossible to tell if the rumors are true, it is worth considering the effect his death would have on Iran.

The assembly’s recent decision reveals the likelihood that if Khamenei were to die soon, he would be replaced by someone at least as conservative and hardline as he is, if not more so. If the next supreme leader is more extreme, he could easily reverse any nuclear deal made with the United States.

Iran’s political direction can be forecast by understanding the makeup of its Assembly of Experts, especially when a transition is possible. The Trumpet believes Iran will continue to push its aggressive anti-Western agenda as it seeks to gain nuclear capability. Tuesday’s election confirms that belief.