Eurozone Nations Could Pawn Gold to Germany

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Eurozone Nations Could Pawn Gold to Germany

New euro plan would have Germany save Europe, in return for power and gold.

The unstoppable force has met the immovable object in the eurozone. The euro cannot stay afloat without German help; the laws of nature will soon reassert themselves and the euro will sink. But Germany cannot help. The public support isn’t there, and in most cases the Constitutional Court has expressly forbidden it.

However, an intriguing compromise is starting to gain traction. Endorsed as a possible way forward by the International Monetary Fund (imf), Société Générale and Germany’s main opposition party the Social Democratic Party, the plan is just the type of deal the Trumpet has forecast for years: Germany bails out Europe in exchange for power and gold.

The scheme gets around the objections of Germany’s Constitutional Court and could gain the approval of the German public.

Called the “European Redemption Pact” and drafted by the German Council of Economic Experts, the plan would see nations keep control of their own debt up to 60 percent of their gross domestic product. Their debt is meant to stay below this level anyway, under EU treaties, but most nations have ignored this.

Any debt above this level would gradually be put into a joint fund. Struggling nations would then have a lower interest rate to pay on much of their debt. People would be more willing to loan money to this new fund, because if one nation defaults on its debts, the other nations (i.e. Germany) are meant to pay it off. Eurozone nations would be expected to pay back this debt fund over 20 to 25 years.

That’s great for the southern eurozone nations, but not for Germany. Because it’s promising to stand behind the debt of other nations, Germany’s debt will be seen as more risky. It will have to pay a higher interest rate. Jefferies Fixed Income estimates it will cost Germany an extra 0.6 percent of gdp a year—around $2 billion.

Germany wants something in return for this generosity.

The Council of Experts said the plan would only work if “strict conditions” were in place. The revenue from a specific tax must be dedicated to paying off the debt in the funds, and nations would have “an obligation to commit to consolidation and structural reforms.” So governments would have to surrender control of parts of taxation and spending policies to Germany.

The plan would also take powers away from the European Central Bank (ecb) and give them to an organization that Germany controls. The Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard quotes an anonymous official as saying: “We have got to get the ecb out of the game of distributing money, and separate fiscal and monetary policy. Germany has only two votes on the ecb Council and has no way to control consolidation.”

“Germany would have a lock hold over the fund, able to enforce discipline,” writes Evans-Pritchard.

But the condition gaining the most attention is the demand for nations to put up collateral for their debt. One version of the Council’s plans would make countries pledge collateral worth one fifth of the money they put in the new fund. This collateral “could be taken from the country’s currency and gold reserves,” said the Council.

“This demand could inflame opinion in Italy and Portugal,” writes Evans-Pritchard. “Both states have kept their bullion, resisting the rush to sell by Britain and others. Italy has 2,451 tons of gold, valued at €98 billion in March.”

As people like Evans-Pritchard say, the plan still has a long way to go before being adopted. But some type of bargain like this—Germany given power in Europe in return for bailing countries out—is inevitable. It’s just a case of how bad things will have to get before the eurozone gives in to Germany’s conditions.