Since the Obama administration’s September 21 announcement that it would deliver a new $5.8 billion arms package to Taiwan, analysts have scrambled to evaluate the implications of the transaction.

The smoke has cleared, and it is now evident that the most telling facet of the news is that Taiwan will not obtain what it most wanted: new F-16s. Instead the United States will give Taiwan an upgrade of its existing fighters, which will require a full decade to complete. Many analysts view this as an indication that the U.S. is becoming a weak and unreliable ally, and a signal that China, which did not want Taiwan to have new F-16s, dictates more and more of Washington’s policies. The Obama administration’s halfhearted weapons sale package also sends the message to Asian nations that they should build up their own weapons caches quietly if they don’t want to provoke the rising Chinese dragon.

Although the package was not all that Taiwan desired, it includes such weapons as smart bombs, air-to-air missiles and radar, which could challenge China’s new generation 5 stealth fighter. This may provide Beijing with justification to further strengthen China’s military power. Reports say that China’s People’s Liberation Army (pla) may harbor a secret delight in the transaction because it anticipates that it will be able to obtain U.S. military technology through spying on Taiwan. Furthermore, the pla can point to the weapons deal as a reason to ask Beijing for a larger budget.

Writing for the Asia Times Online, Taipei-based journalist Jens Kastner said the significance of the deal is that it will act as a catalyst in Asia’s already-rapid arms race:

[T]he Asia-Pacific arms race will accelerate. … [N]ext to China about all other countries in the region have been flocking to get their hands on advanced weaponry. What Japan, Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Australia have in common is the fear of an ever stronger Chinese military on the one side and a U.S. government that begins bowing to Beijing’s interests on the other. As an outcome of this confusion, Asia is where the world’s defense companies expect to make much of their money over the coming years.

Steve Tsang, director of the University of Nottingham’s China Policy Institute, said, “[T]hose who are concerned about China throwing its weight about see the usa at best covertly accommodating Beijing.”

As Asian nations see Beijing becoming more assertive and the U.S.’s will eroding, many will react by building up their own defenses. Others will accept the shifting paradigm, and abandon the sinking U.S. ship to ally with China. The increasing military spending throughout Asia is, at present, the result of bickering among Asian states, but all of that military power will soon be pooled together and channeled against a colossal European enemy. To understand more, read “Reshaping Asia” in the latest issue of the Philadelphia Trumpet.