Russia’s invasion of Georgia last week, and its aftermath, could make U.S. involvement in the Middle East far more difficult. “[T]he return of Russia,” writes the Middle East Times, “portends a shift in the balance of political forces in the Middle East that for the moment at least appears to weaken the American and pro-Western side of the balance and to strengthen the Iranian side” (August 15).

Russia is a major arms supplier to Iran. It is assisting in Iran’s nuclear program, building the Bushehr nuclear reactor. It is protecting Iran from sanctions through its veto power in the United Nations Security Council. As such, the Russians could make it much more difficult for the U.S. to take any meaningful action against Iran.

Certainly, if the U.S. were to put any pressure on Russia, Moscow could simply increase arms sales to and nuclear cooperation with Tehran. Even the threat of new sanctions—which were on the table at the time of the Georgia invasion—has suddenly become less real, seeing as the sanctions would be ineffective without Russia on board. Stratfor wrote August 14:

A little more than a week ago, a deadline set by the United States for an answer from Iran on freezing its uranium enrichment passed without a clear answer from Iran. The next step, according to the United States, is asking the UN Security Council to impose new sanctions on Iran. For that to happen, the Russians must not veto. Just as important, they must be prepared to participate in those sanctions. And even more important, the Russians must not, from the U.S. point of view, provide Tehran with new weapons—particularly air-defense systems more sophisticated than the Russians have provided to any Middle Eastern country. Such systems would, contrary to rumor, pose a challenge to U.S. air power should the United States wish to launch an air campaign in Iran, and would erode the value of the threat of those airstrikes as a negotiating tool.

Then there is Iraq. If Iran starts feeling more confident with Russia at its side, it could once again turn up the heat there. Apparently Iranian-supported Iraqi Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr reemerged on the scene this week and threatened to help drive the Americans from Iraq.

The Americans simply need the Russians more than the Russians need the Americans. As Stratfor wrote August 20, “We do not see an easy way for the United States to press the Russians on Georgia while also expecting Russian cooperation on Iran.”

This isn’t even considering Afghanistan and Pakistan—where Russia also has the ability to complicate an already complex and dangerous situation.

Hence the U.S.’s lack of any effective response to Russia’s aggression in Georgia.

On top of Russia’s ability to interfere with U.S. policies, particularly in relation to Iran, is of course simply the matter of America’s loss of prestige—which was already suffering a battering—in the Middle East. “[T]he prestige and authority of the United States … have taken another blow in the region,” wrote the Middle East Times. “The United States is unable to protect one of its close allies. Georgia is a country with some 2,000 troops deployed alongside the American forces in Iraq and U.S. military advisers have been training the Georgian army for four years now. The question therefore asks itself; what exactly is the point of taking risks to be an ally of the Americans if it brings no protection?” (op. cit.).

Read Brad Macdonald’s column this week, “America the Inert,” for more.